UK Expected to Remain Number One through 2022: The U.S. Department of Commerce’s National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) released a new long-term forecast the week before Thanksgiving that does not contain any real surprises, except for the fact that the inbound travel from China, which has been on a run of double-digit percentage increases for a decade, is expected to flatten this year, yielding a mere 2 percent increase vs. last year in the number of visitors it sends to the United States. However, the market is expected to expand by 8-to-10 percent a year through the next several years.
Other notes, based on the table below, include the following:
—South Korea should surpass Germany this year as the Number 4 overseas source market.
—While Brazil is projected to increase the number of visitors it sends to the United States over the next four years, its annual total will still be far below what it was in 2014 and 2015, when more than 2.2 million came to the U.S. each year.
—While it will fall from Number 2 to Number 3 its ranking of overseas source markets, Japan will remain a stable generator of travelers to the United States, sending about 3.7 million visitors a year for the next four years.
In reviewing the data in the table below, be sure to take notice of the caveats posted by NTTO in the footnotes.
Note: 2017 forecast volumes for 21 countries in this table are based on actual volumes as available in 2017 at the time of the forecast and other information available to the forecast team. 2017 data for all countries are subject to revision and thus actual 2017 may differ from the from the forecasted volumes shown in this table. NTTO no longer releases a forecast by world regions.
CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate, the average annual rate of growth over the forecast period, including compounded growth.
Overseas = All countries except Canada & Mexico. The overseas volume for any year with the forecasted volume reflects the weighted average of these 19 overseas countries above that are specifically forecasted by NTTO, and the weighted average of a ten-year trend for the remaining 200 overseas countries. For this forecast, the combined change in any year for the 19 overseas countries is typically about two percent lower than the weighted average for the other 200 overseas countries. The 19 overseas countries shown in the table account for 74 percent of total overseas volume in 2016.
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration, National Travel and Tourism Office; Statistics Canada; Banco de Mexico. January 2018.